Context Report: IBD 25% Increase Claim
"Rates of Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), including Crohn's, have increased by 25% over the last decade."
Summary: This claim is accurate—the cited Kappelman study found Crohn's disease increased 22% and ulcerative colitis increased 29%, which averages to approximately 25% when weighted by prevalence. However, these are distinct diseases with different increase rates that epidemiologists typically report separately.
Core Context
The claim appears in what seems to be a CDC "MAHA report" citing a legitimate 2025 Kappelman et al. study published in Gastroenterology, which represents the most comprehensive assessment of pediatric IBD prevalence in the United States to date (Crohn's & Colitis Foundation).
The actual study found Crohn's disease increased 22% and ulcerative colitis increased 29% compared to 2009 data, though the exact endpoint year of the comparison is unclear from available summaries, and may represent more than a decade (News Medical).
When weighted by current prevalence rates (Crohn's 71 per 100,000, UC 44 per 100,000), the combined increase averages approximately 24.7%, making the "25%" claim remarkably accurate.
The citation details (year 2025, volume 168, issue 5, pages 980-982) appear correct based on PubMed records, despite a bad DOI that seems not the fault of the report authors.
The study was funded by the CDC and analyzed data from multiple insurance databases covering over 100,000 American youth under age 20, representing the gold standard for pediatric IBD epidemiological research.
High-quality epidemiological research typically reports Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis separately rather than combining them into single IBD statistics, making any combined percentage inherently methodologically complex (Nature).
Sources Table: IBD 25% Increase Claim
| Source | Description of Position on Issue | Link | Initial Usefulness Rating | Specificity of Claims |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crohn's & Colitis Foundation | Official announcement of Kappelman study finding 100,000+ American youth with IBD, confirms study existence and basic findings | Foundation Press Release | 5 | High - specific study details, funding sources |
| University of North Carolina Health | Institutional coverage of Kappelman study with quotes from lead researcher, confirms CDC funding and methodology | UNC Health News | 5 | High - institutional confirmation, research details |
| News Medical | Science journalism covering study with crucial detail about 22% and 29% increases for specific diseases | News Medical Article | 5 | Very High - specific percentage increases, timeframe details |
| Technology Networks | Professional scientific reporting confirming study authors and publication details | Technology Networks | 4 | Medium - general study confirmation |
| PubMed NCBI | Federal database showing bibliographic record for study with correct citation details | PubMed Record | 5 | Very High - official citation format, publication verification |
| Nature Reviews | Academic source on epidemiological methods for reporting IBD statistics separately | Nature IBD Epidemiology | 4 | Medium - methodological context on disease reporting |
| Lancet Global Burden Study | Major epidemiological analysis showing global IBD trends and methodology standards | Lancet GBD Study | 4 | Medium - comparative epidemiological context |
| CDC IBD Facts | Official CDC statistics on IBD burden and costs in United States | CDC IBD Statistics | 4 | Medium - general context on IBD trends |